Every American administration since Jimmy Carter’s has dealt with Iran through some combination of diplomacy, sanctions, covert action, and deterrence. Each accepted implicitly that regime change in Tehran was a goal beyond reach. President Donald Trump has rejected that assumption entirely, making the overthrow of Iran’s clerical government the explicit objective of a military campaign that has already killed more than 1,230 people and displaced over a million across the region. It is the most controversial overseas gamble of his presidency — and possibly of any presidency in a generation.
The military power backing the gamble has been formidable. American B-2 stealth bombers have struck Iran’s buried ballistic missile infrastructure with dozens of 2,000-pound penetrating munitions. A large Iranian naval vessel has been hit and possibly sunk. Israel has systematically dismantled Hezbollah’s command infrastructure in Lebanon, issuing mass evacuation orders and striking over one million people’s neighborhoods. The defense secretary has promised a dramatic surge in US firepower. The IDF chief has promised undisclosed new operations.
The opposition to the gamble has been broad. The United Nations has condemned the escalation. European governments have expressed alarm and called for restraint. China and Russia have demanded that both sides step back. Arab states, whose territory is being struck by Iranian retaliatory missiles, have been caught in an impossible position — unable to endorse a campaign they privately fear while unable to stop it. The UK has provided logistical support while carefully avoiding offensive operations.
The humanitarian cost of the gamble is already severe. More than 1,230 Iranians have been killed. Six Americans have died. Lebanon has counted over 200 dead and nearly 800 wounded. An airstrike on a girls’ school killed more than 100 students. Over one million Lebanese are displaced. Iran’s internet is at approximately 1% capacity. The economic disruption — oil prices, cancelled flights, volatile markets — has been felt globally.
Whether Trump’s gamble pays off depends on factors that are currently unknowable: the internal cohesion of Iran’s government, the willingness of its military to keep fighting under sustained bombardment, and the capacity of the American-Israeli alliance to sustain the campaign long enough to produce the collapse Trump is seeking. History offers limited encouragement for regime change achieved from the air. Trump is betting that this time is different. The world is watching, and the stakes could not be higher.